Months ago I predicted that President Obama would win reelection this fall.  (OK, I also predicted a third-party challenger, but let’s not bring that up.)  What is my take today, now that the major players are apparently all in place?

No change.  Paul Ryan will make a difference, but I don’t believe it will be enough.

Paul Ryan will appeal to the conservatives who were ambivalent about Mitt Romney, and will be anathema to liberal-minded Democrats and independents.  His budget will be a lightning rod, attracting strikes from those who believe that the GOP wants to eliminate Medicare, Social Security, school lunches, contraceptives, and chewing gum.  (I made that last one up, but you get the point.)  He will be the “attack dog” for the Romney campaign, which has been in desperate need of moving away from its defensive pose.

Unfortunately, a Republican “attack dog” is almost certain to bring the nasty tone of the campaign even lower; and we all know what President Obama has done to dogs in the past.

The choice of Paul Ryan will solidify conservative support, but will contribute to the alienation of seniors, women, minorities, and independents.

It’s too bad that the most qualified candidates are too smart to run. 

Pray; give; campaign for your candidate; be wise as serpents and harmless as doves; and may God show mercy on us and our land.

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