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| Predictions As I say repeatedly in the archive below, I am not a prophet nor the son of a prophet; but any person reasonably educated in history and human nature and informed about political, economic, and social events can predict what's going to happen in the near future. Sometimes my predictions have been spectacularly wrong; more often, recently, they have been eerily accurate. Below is a listing of some of my prescient writings, from the oldest to the most recent--unedited and just as they originally appeared.
1/24/12 November's Presidential Election. I have no clue who the eventual GOP nominee will be; but if it is anyone other than Santorum, expect a third-party challenge and split in Republican votes. In any case, like it or not, I expect to see President Barak Obama re-elected. 9/5/08 Obama vs McCain? An election year without opinions from Mr. B?!? Unheard of! I am not a prophet, nor the son of a prophet, but I have made a couple of predictions based upon my observations of our society and human nature. In March, 2007, I told my government class that Sen. Obama would be the Democratic nominee; in March, 2008, I told the next class that he will be the next President. I will not be voting for him; and I have been thrilled to see the amount of energy that Gov. Palin has brought to an otherwise tired Republican campaign. But I see nothing to make me question my prediction. Bible-believing Christians hold the key to the election, and I have not seen any indication that they will turn out to vote--either to reject the liberal Democratic ticket, or to embrace the moderate Republican one. Think I'm an idiot? Get to work to prove me wrong! 10/20/08 The Economic Crisis. My students have many questions about how bad things are going to get, and the answers aren't that hard to figure out. Regardless of the outcome of the election, investors are going to be very cautious about investing, and credit will be tight. Our automakers are going to continue to suffer, along with the building and construction industries. The economic sector itself will take a hit, which will have a greater impact here in New Jersey and New York than in some other places. Christmas sales of large-ticket items will be down, while other sales will be mostly flat (and paid for on credit). Support for food pantries and soup kitchens will continue as currently, but many other non-profits will suffer. By the time this year's seniors graduate, find it difficult to get college loans, and compete for the limited jobs out there next June, the unemployment rate will be 9% or higher. (You heard it here first.) If I'm so smart, then what's the answer to the problem? Accept the lessons of God's judgment! Live within your means! Plan to work longer and make do with less. A few years ago, it was fashionable to bemoan the fact that the current generation would be the first in American history to grow up with less than their parents; over the next couple of years we will see the standard of living suffer right before our eyes. Notice that I didn't say that government intervention should play a role in our economic recovery. As Adam Smith wrote in The Wealth of Nations, a capitalistic economy will be corrected by "the Invisible Hand". No government on earth can stave off the sovereign hand of God as He chastens us for our greed and foolishness, and it is a tremendous (and idolatrous) mistake to look to the strong arm of man to rescue us, instead of trusting the Almighty and accepting His judgment. 1/26/09 Our New President. (I said "Our" intentionally. In the past week, I have had a number of people indicate to me that they could not or would not respect and honor President Obama. Get over it. God has appointed or at least allowed him to be our "king" and we owe him the same respect we owe any president.) I am praying that our new president will be the best one we've ever had, and I wish him success in every righteous endeavor. As for the liberal, socialistic aspects of his agenda, I pray that we will quickly see the errors of our ways, and take proper steps to repent before their harm is irreparable. What do I think will be the legacy of President Obama? Perhaps the longest-lasting impact that any president has depends on the number and philosophies of supreme court justices he appoints. I expect that President Obama will get to name three new justices in the next two years, and his choices will drive US legal policy for years to come. (Care to guess with me who will be retiring? Think initials S, S, and G.) 5/18/09 The Current Depression. Argue over the name if you will, but the financial crisis our nation is mired in will not be going away anytime soon. As an observer of history and society, I have concluded that the present distress will last somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 years before the prosperity of the last 2 decades returns. Why so long? --Unemployment will level off next year, but will remain steady at a high rate for a time, and will only gradually return to last year's low levels. Temporary stimulus jobs will expire and the government's ability to fund renewal will be severely compromised; --High unemployment results in different buying patterns, which in turn impacts manufacturing and service industries, keeping unemployment high, business losses high, and raising prices; --Lower tax revenues from property, sales, and income taxes will hinder government efforts to help the needy, or even to provide necessary services at the present level; --The national debt and deficits will be exascerbated as the federal government prints more money to fuel its spending. The devaluing of the dollar will continue to erode the confidence of our own financial markets as well as the international community; --Interest rates will rise dramatically despite government efforts to contain them, in part due to international reluctance to purchase our instruments of debt; --Protectionism and resulting trade wars will cost the US some of its access to cheaper foreign goods, and will drive up production costs on many products; --Increasing costs to provide necessary products and services will drive up prices, returning us to stagflation similar to that in the 1970's. These and many other factors will impact our economy well into the next decade, especially if the Lord returns and God's judgment falls upon the earth. 10/21/09 Update. If you reread the opinion below from 5/18 concerning the current depression, you can begin to evaluate my predictions to a small degree. So far I am right on the employment and dollar valuation issues, but wrong on price hikes due to production costs and on higher interest rates. Unfortunately, I am confident that even those aspects will come true in the months/years to come. One thing I really blew it on: the temporary stimulous jobs. According to a report out today, 49 of 50 states lost jobs rather than created them, so they aren't there to vanish. (The one thing I give the administration credit for succeeding at, and they didn't!) 6/21/10 Update. I am not a prophet nor the son of a prophet, but my predictions (see posts from 1/26/09, 5/18/09) continue to come true. The President has replaced Justice Souter and is in the process of replacing Justice Stevens. The temporary stimulus jobs (especially census workers like me) have been added, and soon will be ended. Both domestic and internation financial markets are unsettled and fluctuating wildly. 7/27/10 Will the GOP Regain Congress in November? There has been a lot of speculation lately about the possibility of the GOP regaining majorities in both houses of Congress in the upcoming election. While there is no doubt that the repubs will pick up seats in both the Senate and the House, (perhaps enough for a slim majority in the Senate,) it is naive to think that they could retake the House of Representatives. Incumbents running for reelection win more than 90% of the time; and voter dissatisfaction with Congress in general almost never translates to a local constituency "throwing out" their own "bum". So why all the talk? The Tea Party movement has been promoting the idea of a wholesale housecleaning--but they are also splintering the GOP vote in some districts. There is fear among some democrats that the sweeping changes they adopted within the past year and a half could anger moderates and independents--but by the time sales figures go up in August; unemployment figures go down in September; new health care and stimulus benefits and another renewal of unemployment payments are announced in October, most of the internal concern and opposition will have passed. And without a GOP sweep of both houses, Washington is mired in ultra-partisan gridlock for 2 years--raising President Obama to the status of a heroic martyr, powerless to accomplish any of his noble goals because of the Grotesque Opponents of Progress--and propelling him to a second term. (There are admittedly a lot of "if's" here--the largest perhaps being whether the media back the president as impotent hero, or turn on him as ineffective goat. But as long as Sarah Palin and Glen Beck remain the faces of the Right, I don't see the NYT, Wash. Post, CNN, or the major networks turning to the Republicans to save the nation.) 11/4/10 I WAS WRONG. If you look at my prediction of 7/27 with regards to the House of Representatives, I was wrong--arrogantly wrong to speak of the naivete of others who disagreed. But let me spin my mistake for a moment: I base my predictions upon the lessons of history and an understanding of human nature, both of which led me, and would lead me again, to the conclusion I wrote in July. For an election outcome to be so far out of the norm will be called an aberration by those who dislike it, and little short of a miracle by those who are thrilled by it. | |
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